This week, Jagmeet Singh made headlines by announcing he had "ripped up" the Confidence and Supply Agreement with the Liberal government. As the leader of the NDP steps away from his partnership with the Liberals, many are left wondering: Was this a smart move? Based on Abacus Data polling, I believe it was—and here’s why.
Over the past 14 months, the NDP's share of committed voters has remained steady, moving within a narrow band of 17% to 21%.
During the same period, the Liberals have seen their support erode, falling from 31% to a range of 22% to 25%, while the Conservative share has surged to between 41% and 43%. Despite the Liberal drop, the NDP has not seen a significant net gain in support. Why is that?
While the NDP has gained three percentage points from the Liberals, they have simultaneously lost two points to the Conservatives and one point back to the Liberals - leaving no better off.
In contrast, the Conservatives have attracted support from various sources: four points from the Liberals, two from the NDP, one from the Bloc Québécois, and two from the People's Party.
So, was ending the agreement with the Liberals a smart move? I think so, for several reasons.
The NDP's current position in Canadian politics, compared to the periods just before the 2019 and 2021 elections, offers some intriguing insights. Despite a slightly lower positive impression of Jagmeet Singh and a drop in committed vote share from 20% in February 2020 to 18% today, the party's accessible voter pool remains at 42% Although this is down from previous periods, it is now higher than the Liberal accessible voter pool, which was recently measured at 40%.
In a historical context, the NDP is performing within its usual range. Since 1958, the party's average vote share in national elections has hovered between 16.4% and 19.4%, with today's polling average at 17%, according to 338Canada.com. From this perspective, Jagmeet Singh and the NDP are doing neither better nor worse than we might expect them to, at least historically.
However, the key challenge for the NDP is differentiation.
Research I conducted in March for David Herle's Curse of Politics podcast revealed that Canadians are much more likely to believe there is a “big difference” between the Liberal and Conservative parties (66%) than between the Liberals and the NDP (24%). When it comes to policy areas like climate change, social justice, and equality, most Canadians do not see a stark contrast between the Liberals and the NDP.
Additionally, our data shows that 86% of Canadians desire a change in government, but only 14% believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve re-election.
Within this "change" electorate, two distinct subgroups emerge: those who want a change and believe there is a good alternative to the Liberals (55%)—61% of whom currently support the Conservatives and 29% support the NDP—and those who want change but do not feel there’s a viable alternative (31%). The Liberals lead this latter group by five points over the Conservatives, with the NDP trailing at 19%.
For the NDP, the strategic imperative is twofold: they need to convince "change now" voters that they represent a real alternative to the Liberals and to reassure more hesitant change voters that they offer a safe path forward. Ending the agreement with the Liberals was necessary to achieve both goals.
The decision’s timing—just before byelections in Winnipeg and Montreal on September 16—suggests that the NDP is seizing an opportunity to redefine itself in the eyes of voters and get a lot of free media in doing so.
By positioning themselves as distinct from the Liberals, they aim to capture those who feel disillusioned by the current government yet remain unconvinced by the Conservative alternative while also trying to raise doubts about Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative.
Will this strategy grow NDP support? It's too early to tell, but the data suggests Singh had no choice in breaking with the Liberals.
Their new ad suggests they see the moment just as you suggest.
https://youtu.be/84_OJP_l2vs