Do voters see a difference between the political parties?
My attempt to answer a question from David Herle and the gang at Curse of Politics
Two weeks ago, David Herle, the host of Curse of Politics, asked me this question:
“Hey David Coletto, suggestion, interesting thing for me would be to know what at this point people see the differences between the Liberal Party and the NDP to be.”
And so, on our most recent national survey, I asked Canadians a few questions about differences between the main political parties (led by their current leaders) and specifically what might, if anything, might differentiate the Liberal and NDP in peoples’ minds.
Here’s what I found:
Canadians are much more likely to believe there is a “big difference” between the Liberal and Conservative parties (66%) than do between the Liberal Party and the NDP (24%). I’m using “big difference” as a key marker as I think it better reflects the perception that likely matters when differentiating between the two parties.
Liberal vs. NDP: Conservative supporters today are far more likely to think there’s hardly any difference between the Liberals and NDP (41%) than either LPC or NDP supporters (8% and 3% respectively). NDP supporters are more likely to think there’s a big difference between the NDP and Liberal Party (NDP supporters 49% vs. Liberal supporters 30%). While most Liberal and NDP supporters think there is at least some difference between the two parties, about half or more think there are only some difference between the parties.
When it comes to age, there isn’t much difference except for millennials (aged 30 to 44) who are more likely to think there’s no difference between the NDP and Liberal Party than other age groups. Those aged 60+ are most likely to think there’s a big difference between the two parties.
Liberal vs. NDP on Policy: We asked people how different they felt the two parties are on several policy areas there isn’t much variation across the policy areas we tested. More felt the parties weren’t that different on climate change and the environment or social justice/equality policy. But about 1 in 4 feel the parties are not different about 1 in 3 feel they are somewhat different and about 1 in 5 feel they are very different.
But there is variation depending on who you ask. For example, Liberal supporters are more likely to think the two parties are very different when it comes to economic and fiscal policy while NDP supporters are more likely to think the parties are different on social policies like housing, health, social justice, and labour rights. That being said, only about 20 to 25% of Liberal supporters feel the parties are very different across the policy set we tested while anywhere between 27% to 40% of NDP supporters feel there are big differences between the two. All this to be said is that MOST supporters of both parties don’t perceive there to be big differences between the NDP and Liberal parties.
Liberal vs. Conservative: Unlike perceptions about the difference between the Liberal Party and NDP, there is far more concensus about whether there is a big, minor, or hardly any difference between the Conservative and Liberal parties. 84% of Conservative supporters believe there is a big difference between the two. This drops to 2 in 3 among Liberal supporters and 59% among NDP supporters.
It’s not surprising that NDP supporters are the least likely to perceive much difference between the Liberals and Conservatives but it is interesting still that about 6 in 10 think there is a big difference between the two largest parties. This does suggest that if a choice in an election becomes polarized between the Liberals and Conservatives, many NDP supporters may be persuased to vote Liberal.
When it comes to age, there’s a strong correlation between age and perception about the differences between the Liberals and Conservatives. Older Canadians are far more likely to believe there is a big difference between the LPC and CPC (60+ 81%) than those under 30 (45%).
