Will connecting Poilievre with Trump work for the Liberals?
Some initial evidence that suggests it could work, but is unlikely to solve for the real problem the Liberals are facing.
There has been an increasing debate (reporting, opinion, opinion) as to whether the Liberals and Justin Trudeau should or shouldn’t connect Pierre Poilievre with Donald Trump as part of its strategy to get back into contention.
This analysis aims to delve into this strategic maneuver, focusing on how Canadians feel about Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump. It shows that while Trump isn’t well liked among most Canadians - including Conservative voters - Trudeau doesn’t do much better.
Public Opinion on Trudeau, Poilievre, and Trump
Based on the latest Abacus Data survey (conducted from January 9 to 11 with 1,500 Canadian adults), opinions of the four politicians vary. Pierre Poilievre enjoys a slightly higher rating than Joe Biden, while Donald Trump is the least popular, closely trailed by Justin Trudeau. This juxtaposition of figures suggests a nuanced public perception, where no single leader being particularly liked and two pretty disliked.
Accessible Conservative Voters' Perspective
Among the 54% of Canadians open to voting Conservative, the dynamics shift. In this group, Trudeau is viewed less favorably than Trump. This is a critical insight for the Liberals, as these are the voters they need to deter from leaning towards the Conservatives. The data suggests that the negative association of Poilievre with Trump might not be as impactful in this demographic, given their relatively more favorable view of Trump compared to Trudeau.
Accessible Liberal Voters' Perspective
Turning to the 41% of Canadians inclined towards the Liberals, the scenario is quite different. Here, Trump is significantly less liked, while Trudeau enjoys a much higher rating. This disparity indicates that within the Liberal base, the strategy of associating Poilievre with Trump could resonate more effectively. Trudeau's higher favorability among these voters could be leveraged to consolidate the Liberal base.
