Where have all the youth gone?
Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party, and the youth vote in Canada
In recent years, the political landscape in Canada has undergone significant shifts, particularly among younger demographics. Data compiled from Abacus Data's archives provides a comprehensive view of these changes, revealing a notable decline in support for the Liberal Party among Canadians aged 18 to 35.
I pulled data from our post-2015 election study as well as from similar time periods from 2018 to today. Combining multiple surveys into a single dataset allows me to better understand what’s happening within age groups with more confidence.
December 3, 2018 to February 10, 2019 – 4,500 adults interviewed
December 6, 2019 to February 9, 2020 – 3,264 adults interviewed
December 7, 2020 to February 28, 2021 – 3,479 adults interviewed
December 12, 2021 to February 13, 2022 – 3,660 adults interviewed
November 28, 2022 to February 19, 2023 – 3,986 adults interviewed
December 4, 2023 to January 28, 2024 – 4,087 adults interviewed
The analysis presents a very clear picture. Young Canadians, once a stronghold for the Liberals, has seen its support for the federal Liberals fall from 34% in early 2021 to just 25% today.
The demographic which likely gave the Liberals it’s majority in 2015 and saved it from defeat in 2019 and 2021, has fallen out of love with Mr. Trudeau and the Liberal Party.
However, it is worth noting that this trend is not isolated to younger Canadians but represents a broader movement away from the party across all age groups, with the most significant decline among the youth.
The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), under the leadership of Poilievre, has capitalized on this shift, seeing the largest increase in support from young Canadians.
This rise corresponds with growing concerns over the cost of living, inflation, and interest rates, issues that have taken center stage in the minds of younger Canadians.
These concerns have not only influenced their preference at the polls but have also reshaped the landscape of accessible voters, with those open to voting Liberal among the 18 to 35 age group dropping from 58% in February 2022 to 49% today. Conversely, the Conservative Party has seen its pool of accessible youth voters increase from 40% in February 2020 to 48% today.
