What is the likelihood you would vote Conservative?
How you feel about Pierre Poilievre is the biggest driver to whether you'd vote Conservative today but other factors matter in the equation.
In my latest Abacus Data survey, 41% of committed voters say they would vote Conservative. That’s down 4-points from two weeks ago but still a share of the vote that would deliver a majority government.
So what factors explain someone’s support for the Conservatives today? That’s the question this piece set out to answer, particularly in light of growing economic anxieties, a focus on Donald Trump, and shifting political allegiances.
Does concern about cost of living or healthcare steer voters toward the Conservatives, or do personal views of key figures like Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney matter more? And how does the prospect of “change” factor into vote choice?
To find out, I used binary logistic regression, a statistical tool that shows how each predictor (or variable) shifts the odds of someone voting Conservative. Each coefficient in the output reflects the influence of that predictor, holding all others constant. A higher positive coefficient means that factor pushes people more strongly toward a Conservative vote, while negative coefficients pull them away.
The most striking result is that having a positive view of Pierre Poilievre carries the heaviest weight, with a coefficient of about +3.7. This eclipses most other factors, confirming that Poilievre’s personal brand is a powerful magnet for Conservative support and something that is also repelling people away.
Another strong predictors, however, is whether a respondent wants a change in government and believes there’s a good alternative—this variable shows a coefficient of +1.0, highly significant. As we have shown in our most recent polling, the proportion of Canadians who feel this way is dropping which helps explain the drop in Conservative vote change.
Economic concerns also stand out: naming cost of living among your top issues significantly increases the odds of voting Conservative (coefficient +0.5), as does believing Canada is off on the wrong track (versus headed in the right direction) (+0.6). Meanwhile, positive feelings toward Mark Carney remain a strong negative predictor (–1.9), suggesting a distinct divide between those who appreciate Carney’s approach and those who align with Poilievre. Demographically, age (the older you are the more likely you are to vote Conservative, all else being equal) and homeownership are positive predictors of a vote for the Conservatives. Interestingly, gender is not a factor when you control everything else.
Also, when we control for everything else, views on Donald Trump—both positive or negative—show only a modest impact on likelihood to support the Conservatives all else being equal. This implies that Trump is not a decisive factor in the Canadian context when other variables are taken into account - at least for a vote for the Conservatives.
The Model at Work
To demonstrate how the logistic regression model translates different beliefs and personal characteristics into a predicted probability of voting Conservative, we’ve constructed three hypothetical voter “profiles.”
Each profile includes a unique mix of the key variables we identified—such as having a positive view of Pierre Poilievre, thinking Canada is on the wrong track, wanting a change in government, and seeing cost of living as a top issue. By toggling these factors, we can illustrate how each one contributes to the overall likelihood of choosing the Conservative Party. Below are three scenarios—one hovering around 10% probability, another around 50%, and one hitting roughly 90%.