What happened in the GTA?

A closer look at Liberal losses in the Toronto suburbs

The 2025 federal election delivered a fourth consecutive Liberal government under Mark Carney—but not the majority many expected. And the key reason? An underwhelming performance in the suburbs of the Greater Toronto Area, where the party lost six seats, or seven if you count the new riding of Milton East–Halton Hills South. The Conservatives made significant gains, especially in York Region, and those losses cost the Liberals their shot at majority territory.

That result stings for a party that improved its vote share across Ontario and benefited from a collapsed NDP vote. So, what happened?

Let’s start with the numbers. Based on our Abacus Data polling in the region, the Conservatives held onto 90% of their 2021 vote and attracted both Liberal and NDP defectors. The Liberals retained about 77% of their previous voters but lost 19% to the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the NDP lost a staggering 60% of their 2021 support, with nearly a third moving to the Liberals and much of the rest to the Conservatives. Among those who didn’t vote in 2021 but said they would this time, more leaned Conservative (45%) than Liberal (36%).

In short: the Conservatives maintained their base and grew it. The Liberals leaked votes but softened the blow by winning over many former NDP supporters. And the NDP simply collapsed in many parts of the GTA, but especially in Durham and Brampton.

But vote flows only get us so far. To explain why it happened, we need to dig deeper into the psychology, economics, and identity politics shaping the GTA suburbs.

Start with geography. The swings were not uniform across the 905. In York Region—where the Conservatives flipped five seats—the average swing to the CPC was +6.8 points, one of the most significant in the GTA. In Peel, the CPC also gained ground (+3.5 points), flipping Brampton West and coming close in others. But in Halton and Durham, the average swings went the other way - with a negative swing against the Conservatives, although by a very small amount.

So why the surge in York and Peel?

1. Crime and the perception of insecurity.
While not the top ballot question, crime—especially auto theft—played a subtle but effective role. York Region has seen a spike in auto thefts in recent years. Though incidents declined in 2024 after federal and provincial crackdowns, the impression that crime was out of control lingered.

Pierre Poilievre’s “tough on crime” message—focusing on bail reform and organized car theft rings—landed well with suburban commuters who rely on their vehicles and felt their communities were becoming less safe. In York, the swing to the Conservatives was especially strong in ridings like Vaughan–Woodbridge and King–Vaughan, both areas where safety concerns and long car commutes intersect. The Liberals tried to counter this narrative, but the perception damage was already done.

2. Affordability and the wallet-squeeze suburbs.
Voters in Peel and York carry some of the largest mortgages in the country. Add in long, car-dependent commutes and exposure to rising fuel prices and interest rates, and you have a population particularly sensitive to affordability concerns. The Conservatives’ relentless focus on “axe the tax,” reducing inflation, and controlling spending likely would have resonated.

3. Immigration backlash—particularly in York.
Under Trudeau, Canada welcomed millions of newcomers post-pandemic. While this immigration helped fill labour shortages, it also added pressure on housing, health care, and infrastructure. The backlash, especially in fast-growing suburban areas, was evident. Even with scaled-back targets and student permit reductions in 2024, the resentment lingered.

4. Cultural conservatism and identity politics.
In both Peel and York, many South Asian and Chinese Canadian voters are socially conservative. They value family, faith, entrepreneurship, and community order. For many, the Liberals’ progressive stances on gender, parental rights, and criminal justice reform felt out of touch. Poilievre’s campaign, while not overtly targeting these communities with culture war messages, was implicitly more aligned with their values.

The Liberals, meanwhile, entered the race with some baggage. High-profile Italian-Canadian cabinet ministers like Marco Mendicino and David Lametti were dropped under Trudeau, and Mark Carney didn’t appoint any Italian-Canadian MPs to his first cabinet. That decision may have been noticed in communities like Vaughan, where Italian identity politics still matter.

5. A fractured left and rising Conservative turnout.
As the NDP vote collapsed in many ridings, particularly among young voters and lower-income households, the Liberals gained—but not enough. And while some past non-voters leaned Liberal, more leaned Conservative, giving Poilievre’s party a turnout edge.

So what’s the big takeaway?

The Conservatives’ gains in the GTA weren’t about a Poilievre wave or a total rejection of Mark Carney. They were about cumulative frustration—on affordability, safety, and values—and a Conservative campaign that knew how to speak to those concerns without alienating its core.

York and Peel were the epicentre of this shift, and if the Liberals hope to win back these voters, they’ll need to rebuild trust in these wallet-squeezed, culturally complex communities.