What do Americans think about Canada, Trump’s tariffs, and retaliation?

A new poll from GZERO Media and Abacus Data digs deep

I’m pleased to share our latest research on how Americans perceive Canada, especially as trade tensions begin to simmer under President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025.

This project, conducted in partnership with GZERO Media, surveyed 1,500 eligible U.S. voters to provide a snapshot of current views on cross-border issues. Given Canada’s longstanding partnership with the United States—and the recent buzz about renewed tariffs—understanding the American mindset is more essential than ever.

The findings paint a fascinating picture. At a high level, Americans continue to hold a remarkably positive view of Canada, describing us as allies and good friends. In fact, a clear majority (86%) call Canada an ally outright. Yet even with that goodwill, many respondents believe Canada benefits disproportionately from trade agreements like CUSMA (formerly USMCA). Over half (56%) think we come out “way ahead,” a perspective that can quickly turn into support for tariffs if Americans suspect the playing field is uneven.

That viewpoint is particularly pronounced among Trump voters, the group most eager to endorse tougher trade measures. They’re significantly more likely than voters who supported Kamala Harris to describe tariffs as “a good idea.” While many Trump voters maintain a friendly attitude toward Canada in the abstract, their belief that Canada doesn’t pay its fair share—whether for defense or cross-border security—fuels their willingness to back higher duties. Harris voters, on the other hand, consistently worry about rising prices and the broader economic fallout of a trade war, particularly if Canada retaliates.

Another dimension that emerged is the role of geographic proximity. People living in states that border Canada—places like Michigan, Minnesota, and New York—tend to see the tangible impact of cross-border trade firsthand. They’re also more likely to express concern about how a 25% tariff might drive up prices, damage local businesses, and sour relations overall. But as we move farther away from the border, that sense of direct impact recedes, creating space for more ambivalence or even support for tariffs among those who don’t see how deeply integrated the Canadian and U.S. economies have become.

We also uncovered a major gap between Americans’ perceived and preferred sources of energy imports. Most Americans mistakenly think Saudi Arabia is the largest foreign supplier of U.S. oil, yet they overwhelmingly say they’d prefer buying from Canada. This contradiction underscores two key points: many Americans aren’t fully aware of how much energy already flows from north of the 49th parallel, but they instinctively trust and value Canada’s resources over other foreign sources.

For Canadians—whether in government, business, or civil society—these findings highlight the importance of clear communication and myth-busting. If Americans believe we’re freeloaders on defense or immigration, or see our trade benefits as excessive, they’re more likely to support aggressive policies.

By contrast, evidence about our shared interests, mutual economic gains, and deeply integrated supply chains could nudge uncertain or moderate Americans away from a costly trade fight.

Read the full report: https://abacusdata.ca/what-americans-think-about-canada-tariffs-and-a-possible-trade-war-abacus-data-poll/