What did Poilievre choose yesterday?

A few thoughts on the rally in Ottawa

Pierre Poilievre’s speech at the Flag Day rally in Ottawa was more than a patriotic spectacle; it was a test of how effectively the Conservative leader could address Canadians’ mounting concerns over Donald Trump’s influence—an issue that I argued yesterday weighs heavily on Poilievre’s effort to hold his new voter coalition together.

Poilievre entered the rally with a delicate balancing act: pleasing the portion of his base that admires Trump while simultaneously reassuring a significant share of Conservatives (and prospective Conservative voters) who reject Trump’s brand of politics.

His speech offered some hints at his strategy: he emphasized “Canada First,” drew distinctions on trade and security policy, and issued a firm declaration that Canada would never become the “51st state,” a clear repudiation of any subservience to U.S. interests.

Still, I think Poilievre’s challenge remains acute. The speech showcased his willingness to play hardball with Washington when necessary, framing his approach to potential tariff battles as one of “strength” and “leverage.” In so doing, he planted his flag on Canadian sovereignty and self-reliance—an appeal to those anxious about Trump’s tendencies to pressure allies and ignite economic warfare with Canada.