Yesterday, my colleague Eddie Sheppard released some new polling on the Abacus Data website that finds a 14-point drop in concern about climate change over the past year. The survey results tell a compelling story of how the scarcity mindset has taken hold, altering Canadians’ priorities. In an environment where day-to-day financial concerns dominate, long-term challenges like climate change are being pushed to the sidelines.
What is the Scarcity Mindset?
The scarcity mindset refers to the psychological state where individuals are preoccupied with short-term survival and immediate needs—housing, healthcare, food, and the ability to make ends meet. It’s a phenomenon well-documented in social science research, showing how when people perceive scarcity in their environment, they focus on the most pressing, tangible needs at the expense of long-term thinking. In Canada today, that scarcity mindset is rampant, shaped by rising costs of living, inflation, and housing unaffordability.
I’ve been talking about it now for over a year in the dozens of briefings, speeches, and presentations I’ve been giving. It is the context that underpins all my work right now.
As the affordability concerns have deepened - today close 86% of Canadians rank the cost of living or housing as one of their top issues - climate change has fallen off the list of top priorities for many Canadians. Our data shows that only 62% of Canadians are now concerned about climate change, down from 76% just a year ago. It’s clear that when people are more focused on their next mortgage payment or medical bill, concerns about the future of the planet take a backseat.
Generational Differences in Concern
Interestingly, the impact of this scarcity mindset on climate concern isn’t uniform across all demographics. Canadians aged 30 to 54—those most likely in the prime of their working and family lives—are less concerned about climate change than their older counterparts. Only 35% of this age group expressed high levels of concern about climate change, compared to 50% of those aged 60 and above.
This is a classic example of the scarcity mindset at work. People in their middle years are juggling multiple economic pressures—rising housing costs, education expenses for children, rising food, energy, and other expenses, and job security concerns. For them, immediate survival, or even maintaining a modest standard of living, is understandably more urgent than preparing for the long- or medium-term impacts of climate change - even when the impact of climate change has never been more apparent and real (think the wildfires in Jasper).
The Implications for Climate Action Advocates
The implication of these findings is clear: anyone advocating for climate change policy in today’s environment must find ways to address public concerns about cost of living if they are to be successful. Traditional calls for sacrifice—asking people to use less energy, pay carbon taxes, or support costly environmental regulations—are unlikely to find many receptive ears when most people are struggling just to pay their bills.
Our polling on the carbon tax or price finds that support has dropped. Today, when asked about a hypothetical Conservative federal government, 61% of Canadians want a Conservative government to eliminate the national carbon tax. It is almost as popular as a cut to personal income taxes.
The message has to shift. Rather than framing climate action as a moral imperative that requires personal sacrifice, advocates should focus on how climate solutions can also ease economic pressures. Clean energy jobs, energy-efficient homes that reduce electricity bills, or the economic benefits of leading in green technology innovation—these are the kinds of narratives that may resonate more with Canadians right now. But asking them to sacrifice or choosing policy options that are perceived to cost more or force a sacrific, will find little appeal.
Numb to Climate Threats or Distracted by Immediate Pressures?
A key question in this shift is: Has the frequency of extreme weather and unnatural disasters made some Canadians numb to the threat of climate change? Or is the cost of living focus simply outweighing concerns at the moment?
Based on our understanding of public opinion and human psychology, it’s likely a combination of both. In 2024 alone, Canadians have witnessed record-setting wildfires, devastating floods, and destructive storms. Yet, even as these extreme events become more frequent, they seem to have lost their ability to shock people into action. This phenomenon, known as disaster fatigue, can make people feel overwhelmed and helpless, leading them to disengage from the issue altogether.
At the same time, the day-to-day struggle to make ends meet is simply more visceral. Psychological research shows that people are far more likely to focus on immediate threats to their well-being—like affording groceries or paying rent—than on abstract, long-term dangers like climate change. This helps explain why 72% of Canadians now say they prioritize immediate issues over environmental ones. People can’t think about tomorrow when they are so worried about today.
Regional and Political Divides
Our data also shows stark differences in how Canadians approach the balance between economic growth and climate action, with a clear divide along political lines. While 55% of Canadians overall believe the government should balance both, 41% of Conservative supporters advocate for prioritizing economic growth, even if it means delaying climate action. This indicates that advocates need to be particularly mindful of regional and political divisions when pushing for climate policies, as what works for one demographic might backfire with another.
In Quebec, for example, climate change remains a key issue for a large segment of the population, but even there, concern about climate change has disappaited. Quebecers are as likely to say they are deeply concerned about climate change as those in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, or BC.
The Road Ahead for Policy Makers and Advocates
For those working in politics, public policy, or public affairs, the implications of this data are clear. As public sentiment shifts toward immediate concerns, any political platform that emphasizes climate change at the expense of addressing the cost of living is likely to struggle. The scarcity mindset won’t be going away anytime soon, and anyone who ignores it risks alienating a significant portion of the electorate.
The key challenge for political leaders will be finding ways to make climate action relevant to people’s immediate economic needs. Policies that link environmental sustainability to affordability and job creation will likely be more successful than those framed around moral imperatives or future risks.
Public opinion research digging deeper into this is a must.
In the months ahead, it will be critical to monitor how this scarcity mindset evolves and whether concerns about climate change rebound as (or if) economic pressures ease. For now, advocates for climate action must recognize that the ground has shifted and adjust their strategies accordingly.
The Upshot
The declining concern about climate change among Canadians, particularly among those in the 30 to 54 age group, is a direct reflection of a scarcity mindset taking hold. Public priorities are shifting, and for climate advocates to succeed, they must address the immediate financial concerns that dominate Canadian life today. The challenge is real, but so are the opportunities for creative, strategic messaging that bridges the gap between economic security and environmental sustainability.