The Next Morning: 2025 Canadian Election

An initial recap of what happened and what the polls told us

Canada’s 45th general election has delivered a fourth consecutive mandate for the Liberal Party—this time a minority government under new leader and first-time candidate Mark Carney. As of early this morning, the Liberals were leading or elected in 168 ridings, compared to 144 for the Conservatives. The Bloc Québécois holds 23, the NDP 7, and the Greens 1.

In the national vote, the Liberals lead narrowly—43.5% to the Conservatives’ 41.4%. A tight race and similar to what almost all the polls, including mine, suggested we would see.

This was an election shaped by two powerful ballot questions: a desire for change after nearly a decade of Liberal rule, and deep concern about what Donald Trump’s second presidency could mean for Canada. The latter loomed especially large in the final weeks. In the end, enough voters—particularly older Canadians and Ontarians—opted for stability over disruption. Trust, not enthusiasm, decided the outcome.

From our perspective at Abacus Data, this campaign was both a professional test and a reminder of why we do this work. Our final poll had the Liberals at 41%, the Conservatives at 39%, the NDP at 10%. Pretty close to the final tally but not perfect by any means. We overestimated the NDP vote and underestimated the two main party’s vote share. But we also saw just how seat efficiency and regional concentration can make a two-point lead look much larger in Parliament than it does on paper. The Liberal vote was more cost-effective, especially in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

And then there’s this: Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in Carleton. That fact alone underscores the unusual nature of this election.

Let’s not forget how we got here.

Three months ago, the Conservatives were cruising to a majority. Trudeau resigned. The Liberals turned to Carney. Then Trump blew up the narrative with threats of tariffs and annexation. And suddenly, what started as a referendum on the Liberals became a referendum on Canada’s sovereignty, economic resilience, and place in the world.

Voter turnout appears to have landed around 68% to 70% (there are still more votes to count)—higher than the previous two elections and on par with 2015. That’s encouraging. Canadians showed up. They cared. And they made a clear choice, even if it wasn’t a landslide.

We’ve just launched our post-election survey, and we’ll be releasing more analysis in the days ahead. We’ll dig deeper into why people voted the way they did, what messages resonated, and what this result means for each party moving forward.

Next week, I’ll also be speaking at the Empire Club in Toronto for a post-election debrief. And if you missed it, I joined Jayme Poisson on the Front Burner podcast to reflect on the campaign’s biggest twists very early in the morning.

I also did some international media including BBC News and ABC News in Australia.

Thank you to all of you who followed my work throughout the campaign, who read these posts, shared our polls, and offered thoughtful feedback. It means the world. More to come soon.