The NDP is in deep trouble
Exploring the reasons why the party could see its vote collapse this year.
Over the past week, I’ve been taking a closer look at what is holding back the NDP in the eyes of potential voters. Based on survey data I collected with Abacus Data, I asked Canadians who would consider voting NDP but currently aren’t planning to do so what their main hesitation was. The results were quite revealing, particularly when we zoom in on three major barriers to NDP support: a polarized electorate, a relatively unpopular leader, and a lack of perceived viability.
First, let’s look at polarization. It’s no secret that Trump has created a new dynamic - an election that looks more likely to be defined by a contest between the Liberals and the Conservatives, Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.
This polarization has a direct impact on smaller parties like the NDP. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of those surveyed—who identify as open to voting NDP but aren’t doing so—said their reluctance stems from not wanting to see a Conservative government win. Of that group, a massive 71% say they’re voting Liberal. This data point highlights a familiar dynamic in Canadian politics: left-leaning voters often feel pressure to rally behind the Liberals to stop the Conservatives. It’s less about loving the red team and more about fearing the blue team. For the NDP, it’s a structural problem that goes hand in hand with our electoral system. When so many voters are primarily motivated by blocking one party, a smaller progressive party will often lose out.
Next is the relative unpopularity of Jagmeet Singh—at least among these wavering voters. Almost a quarter (23%) of respondents who would consider the NDP but aren’t voting for it pointed to their personal dislike of Singh. Of that segment, 52% are planning to vote Conservative. In my view, this suggests that Singh might not be connecting with certain voters who are open to the NDP (and not the Liberals) but have reservations about him specifically. While he’s certainly had his bright moments, and there are pockets of voters enthusiastic about his leadership, the data here indicates there’s a real ceiling that Singh has yet to break through. For the NDP, a leader’s appeal is crucial; unlike the Liberals or Conservatives—larger parties with longer histories and broader bases—the NDP needs a leader who can truly stand out and galvanize support. Right now, according to these results, Singh still has work to do.
Finally, there’s the issue of viability. For many Canadians, voting for the NDP just doesn’t feel like a winning proposition. Another 27% of those surveyed told us they’d vote NDP if they thought the party could actually form government. Of these, 41% are currently voting Liberal, and 27% are voting Conservative. This underscores the strategic mentality of Canadian voters. People want to back a winner.
Currently, only 9% of Canadians think the NDP will win the next election - much much lower than the 48% who think the Conservatives are going to win and 25% who think the Liberals are likely victors. Many are worried that a vote for the NDP could be a “wasted vote,” especially given the first-past-the-post system, in which smaller parties struggle to convert support into actual seats. For the NDP to grow beyond its base, it must tackle the perception that it’s destined for third place (or worse). It’s a vicious cycle: you can’t prove you’re viable unless you win enough votes, and you can’t win those votes unless people think you’re viable.
If we zoom out to the broader Abacus Data horse race tracking, the NDP’s situation looks even more serious. Currently, the party is polling at 14%—its lowest level since October 2016. By contrast, the Conservatives sit at 41% support, while the Liberals have climbed to 29%. These figures reinforce just how difficult the road ahead may be for the New Democrats.
Part of the problem clearly stems from Singh’s popularity numbers, which have deteriorated noticeably. His negatives, now sitting at around 40%, have consistently been higher than his positives in recent months, which are down to 29%. This is the highest negative rating Singh has faced since becoming leader. Although he’s had success appealing to some younger and progressive voters, it appears that a growing number of Canadians have cooled on him.
These polling challenges reflect the three factors we’ve already highlighted. Polarization in particular can crowd out smaller parties, causing potential supporters to default to the Liberals in order to stop the Conservatives—or vice versa. Leadership concerns hold back those who are unsure about Jagmeet Singh. And perceived lack of viability can send progressive Canadians into the arms of a party they think has a real shot at government—most often the Liberals.
If these trends continue, we could see a dynamic reminiscent of the 2017 UK General Election, where the two main parties—the Conservatives and Labour—ended up taking a substantially higher combined share of the vote than expected. In that British contest, smaller parties were squeezed as voters gravitated to whichever of the two big parties best aligned with their views on Brexit.
Fear of wasting one’s vote or letting the “other side” get in powered the surge in major-party support. Given how polarized Canadian politics has become, it’s not hard to imagine a similar scenario playing out here, with the Liberals and Conservatives scooping up voters who might otherwise have considered the NDP, Green, or BQ, as Trump polarizes the electorate.
So, what does all this mean for the NDP right now? The party faces a steep uphill climb on several fronts: it must overcome intense polarization that leaves little space for smaller parties, address lingering doubts about Jagmeet Singh’s leadership appeal, and, above all, convince voters that it can be a truly viable alternative. This isn’t a simple matter of tweaking policy; it’s about forging a clearer, more compelling identity—one that resonates enough with Canadians to break the “wasted vote” mindset. Unless the NDP can broaden its tent and reassure Canadians it’s capable of winning, progressives might continue to flock to the Liberals to block the Conservatives, leaving the NDP struggling to maintain any relevance and seats after a federal election.