The Motivation to Vote
Why the Conservatives might do even better than what the polls suggest
A federal election is still likely more than a year away, but polling data can help us understand the dynamics that might ultimately impact the election.
One of those factors is voter turnout.
In the last federal election, 62.3% of eligible voters in Canada cast a ballot, down from 67% in 2019 and 68.3% in 2015.
According to Elections Canada, younger Canadians were far less likely to vote than older Canadians. This is a phenomenom that has been noted for a long time and isn’t new. But what we have seen re-emerge over the last two elections is a growing turnout differential by age. In 2015, there was surge in youth voter turnout and the differentials between age shrunk.
But in 2021, the differential grew slightly. Those under 35 were less likely to turnout than those over 65 and the gap between them grew.
In their excellent book, The Motivation to Vote, André Blais and Jean-François Daoust explore the psychological and contextual factors that influence individuals' decisions to participate in elections. The authors delve into why people choose to vote or abstain, examining various motivational theories and empirical evidence.
They analyze the roles of civic duty, social pressure, personal benefits, and political engagement in shaping voter behaviour.
They find that several factors influence voter turnout.
Civic Duty: One of the strongest motivators for voting is a sense of civic duty. Many people vote because they believe it is a responsibility and a fundamental aspect of being a good citizen.
Social Pressure: Social norms and pressure from peers, family, and community play a significant role in motivating individuals to vote. The desire to be seen as a responsible and engaged member of society can drive voter turnout.
Personal Benefits: While less influential than civic duty, some individuals are motivated to vote by personal benefits, such as the desire to influence the outcome of the election or to see their preferred policies enacted.
Political Engagement: Higher levels of political interest and engagement correlate with a greater likelihood of voting. People who follow political news, discuss politics, and feel knowledgeable about political issues are more inclined to participate in elections.
Institutional Factors: The design of electoral systems and the ease of voting also impact turnout. Systems that lower barriers to voting, such as mail-in ballots or convenient polling locations, tend to see higher voter participation.
Demographic Variables: Age, education, and socioeconomic status significantly influence voting behavior. Older individuals, those with higher education levels, and those with higher incomes are more likely to vote.
Psychological Factors: Emotions, particularly feelings of efficacy and trust in the electoral process, affect the likelihood of voting. People who believe their vote matters and trust the integrity of elections are more motivated to vote.
Overall, Blais and Daoust's research underscores that voting is a multifaceted behaviour influenced by a combination of moral, social, personal, and contextual factors. Understanding these motivations is crucial for developing strategies to increase voter turnout and foster democratic participation.
As Canada gears up for its next federal election, voter turnout will be a crucial factor influencing the outcome.
Data from a recent Abacus Data survey conducted online from May 16 to 21, 2024, with a representative sample of 2,415 adults, sheds light on the likelihood of voting across different age groups.
When respondents were asked how likely they were to vote on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means certain not to vote and 10 means certain to vote, the results revealed significant disparities:
18 to 29 years old: 38% certain to vote
30 to 44 years old: 56% certain to vote
45 to 59 years old: 68% certain to vote
60+ years old: 80% certain to vote
These statistics indicate that older Canadians are more motivated right now to vote than their younger counterparts. The implications of this turnout differential are profound for political parties and the overall political landscape in Canada.
Immediate Impact on Election Outcomes
The national ballot among all decided voters in the latest survey shows: