New Abacus Alberta Poll: UCP 51, NDP 47
A quick review of our latest survey plus some exclusive data to paid subscribers
For the entire Alberta election, I’ll be writing and sharing data exclusive to paid subscribers of this newsletter. For those who aren’t subscribers, you’ll be able to read some of my analysis, but to get everything, including far more data, please subscribe for just $10/month. That helps pay for the data I use in these analyses.
There’s one week left in the Alberta provincial election and we have our first look at the post leaders debate landscape. It’s one that is more favourable for the United Conservatives and Danielle Smith than our previous two surveys.
The Abacus Data survey was conducted from May 19 to 22, 2023 with 1,507 eligible voters. I increased the sample size to over 750 in Calgary so we could better understand what’s happening in that critical election battleground.
The UCP has retaken the lead over the NDP with 40% of eligible voters, saying they would vote for the UCP, ahead of the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 37%.
72% of Albertans surveyed confirmed they would definitely be voting in the election and I put a focus on these folks as my past work suggests they do represent those most likely to vote.
Among committed likely voters, 51% are voting UCP while 47% prefer the NDP. The Alberta Party and other parties receive only 1% of the votes each.
Regional breakouts reveal the NDP continuing its hold of Edmonton (61% vs. 27%) while the UCP has a large lead in communities outside the two major cities (59% vs. 28%). The race in Calgary remains tight with 47% favoring the UCP and 42% backing the NDP. 8% of likely voters in Calgary are still undecided at this point.
The survey highlighted significant generational and educational divides within the electorate. NDP is more popular among those under 45 and those with university degrees, while UCP has stronger support from those aged 45 and over, as well as those with high school or college education. Views of the party leaders, Danielle Smith (UCP) and Rachel Notley (NDP), were nearly evenly split, reflecting the polarized and evenly matched political landscape.
Regarding key issues, the economy was seen as UCP's strength, while the NDP was perceived to be better equipped to handle healthcare. And by almost a 50/50 split - voters are as likely to consider the NDP as the most risky as do those who feel that way about the UCP.
It appears the leaders' debate had little impact on vote choice with about equal numbers feeling Smith or Notley did the most to earn their vote.
With a week to go and 10% of likely voters still undecided, the UCP, though holding a slight lead, could see their position change.
What does all this mean?
The Alberta election campaign continues to be competitive, with deep divisions reflecting the polarized choice in front of voters. Calgary remains the key battleground, while the UCP appears to have made some progress in consolidating its support base. Crucial issues like the economy and healthcare remain at the forefront of voters' minds, and the handling of these topics, as well as the risk presented by the two choices, will be critical in swaying the undecided vote in the final week.
Additional Insights for Paid Subscribers below including:
Vote intention by subregions, including the four quadrants in Calgary
The size of accessible voter pools
Insight into the Reluctant UCPers
The role that identity - Canadian vs. Albertan - plays in vote intention
Twitter and Facebook users and their vote intention