“I’m pro-immigration, but…”
Why I'm going to be tracking opinions and attitudes about immigration more often
I've been thinking a lot about the political impact of increased immigration, the housing crisis, and healthcare shortages. And it's something every leader - CEO, Executive Director, Board Chair - should be thinking about.
I have been hearing people start a discussion about the topic with the caveat, “I’m pro-immigration, but…” and I expect to hear that more often.
A few thoughts and what we can learn from academic research:
1. There's a complex relationship between immigration levels & anti-immigration political behaviour. Some studies find an increase in immigration can lead to the rise of anti-immigration parties, but it's not straightforward or universal and depends on various factors.
2. Research indicates local conditions and perceptions play a key role. In areas with high unemployment or where immigrants are perceived as threats, there can be a stronger swing towards anti-immigration parties.
3. The time it takes for a spike in immigration to change voting behavior isn't fixed. It varies significantly depending on political climate, scale of immigration, government response, and media narratives. It could be a few years, but it's far from a fixed rule.
4. Housing costs & supply can also shape attitudes towards immigration & voting. Populations perceiving that immigration is causing housing scarcity & price hikes could favour populist, anti-immigration parties.
5. Studies show regions with high housing demand and large inflows of immigrants tend to express more negative attitudes toward newcomers due to perceived competition for resources, including housing.
6. But remember, this is influenced by factors like the economy, housing market conditions, immigrant integration levels, and government policies. Well-integrated immigrants contributing to the economy can offset negative sentiments.
7. The relationship between immigration, housing costs & voting is complex with many interacting factors. It also varies across regions/countries. While existing research sheds light on these issues, more is needed for a full understanding.
I'm going to watch and monitor this closely. In Canada's recent history, there's been an elite consensus on immigration. None of the major parties debated immigration.
But if the "market" (public opinion) shifts, it will create an opportunity for market-oriented political parties to take advantage of it.
The stakes around housing, healthcare, and infrastructure are huge IMO as Canada's population grows.
I see a big opportunity for the federal government to develop a clear strategic plan with a vision of how it will help meet this challenge and leverage Canada's global advantages:
Growing but aging population (because people want to move here)
A lot of natural resources and food production
Good, but not great transportation infrastructure
Most highly educated population in the world
A mostly open public opinion that celebrates diversity.
If you think others in your network will value this research, please share this post and encourage them to subscribe. And I welcome your thoughts about this topic and areas I should explore.
Thanks for this post. I hope to see further on this topic as research continues. Previous studies I have read suggest that anti immigration attitudes are stronger in areas where the population seldom come into contact with new immigrants. Conversely people are more comfortable with immigrants in areas where the population routinely comes into contact with immigrants. For example people in rural areas of Quebec were found to be anti Muslim even though there were no Muslim people living in these areas. I think this is repeated in rural areas in western Canada. If this it true, it would suggest that something other than housing, access to medical care, unemployment levels, etc., may be at play. Maybe your research can look at this.