If Justin Trudeau stepped down as leader, how might that impact vote intention?

Some data and thoughts on a completely hypothetical scenario

There’s been a lot of talk recently about whether Justin Trudeau should stay or go as Liberal Leader and Prime Minister. The gang on the Curse of Politics tackled that question this week and it reminded me I asked a question on our most recent Abacus Data national survey that is worth exploring.

On a survey of over 2,400 Canadian adults that we fielded from November 23 to 28, I asked Canadians:

If Justin Trudeau was no longer the leader of the Liberal Party, would you be more or less likely to vote Liberal?

Overall, 30% say they are more likely to vote Liberal while 12% say they are less likely to. That’s a possible net gain of +18. But in my mind, the key numbers are those on either end of the spectrum. 10% say they are much more likely to vote Liberal while 6% say they are much less likely to vote Liberal. More on that shortly.

Now, it’s worth mentioning that this question is entirely hypothetical and of course it would depend on who replaces Mr. Trudeau if he did set aside. But for now, I’m interested in understanding whether Mr. Trudeau resigning fundamentally changes the calculus for the Liberals.

When I look at three key subgroups of the electorate, the story becomes a bit more clear. Among those who are currently open to voting Liberal (42% of the electorate), 37% say they are more likely to vote Liberal while 10% say they are less likely if Trudeau steps aside.

Among those who say they voted Liberal in 2021 but today are either supporting another party or are undecided, 41% are more likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau resigns while 13% are less likely to.

Finally, among those who voted Liberal in 2021 but today say they want change, 45% say they are more likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau steps aside while 10% say they are less likely.

How might this impact vote intention?

To answer that question, I need to look deeper into the data and set some parameters.

First, I only use those who say they are much more likely to vote Liberal to estimate possible Liberal gains and those who say they are much less likely to vote Liberal to estimate Liberal loses.

To produce the estimate, we take all those who don’t currently support the Liberals and say they are much more likely to vote Liberal and add them to the Liberal vote column and remove them from other parties.

Remove those who currently support the Liberals and say they are much less likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau is leader from the Liberal column and add them to their second choice.