How Much Does Likeability Matter? Can a Politician Win an Election Without Being Seen as 'Nice'?
A new study suggests the leadership attributes that matter are perceptions of competence, integrity, and authenticity
As the talk of an early federal election continues (I still highly doubt we will have one this year), one question has been increasingly raised by commentators: Is Pierre Poilievre likable enough to lead the Conservatives to victory?
Susan Delacourt wrote about a new Abacus Data poll we released on the weekend that shows those with a negative impression of Pierre Poilievre have increased by five points over a month. But in the same poll, vote intention has not shifted at all.
While likability has often been framed as essential to political success—just think of the rise of Justin Trudeau’s “sunny ways” in 2015—recent polling and analysis suggest that other qualities may be equally, if not more, important.
In a recent analysis I did, I found that the reputations of Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre are predicted by different trust attributes. For Poilievre, it is almost entirely about perceptions about his openness and honesty (integrity) given he’s an opposition leader with little for people to assess his performance on. For Trudeau, it is a combination of five attributes including integrity, openness to others’ opinions, follow through, and accountability.
A new peer-reviewed academic study just published in Political Studies titled “The Good Politician: Competence, Integrity, and Authenticity in Seven Democracies" offers some intriguing insights that challenge the current discussion in #cdnpoli about likability.
By analyzing how voters in seven different countries evaluate their political leaders, the study explores what qualities truly matter when people step into the voting booth. As the pre-election campaign period heats up, I think this research can help us better understand how voters make their decisions and what Canadian political campaigns might focus on moving forward.
Methodology: How Voters Define “The Good Politician”
The researchers conducted a wide-ranging conjoint survey experiment across seven democracies—Germany, France, Spain, Croatia, Argentina, Brazil, and India. A conjoint experiment allows researchers to present voters with hypothetical political profiles containing multiple attributes, such as competence, integrity, and authenticity, and ask them to choose which candidate they trust more. This method helps identify the causal effect of specific attributes on voter trust.
Each survey involved nationally representative samples, where respondents were asked to compare two hypothetical politicians on various characteristics, including their competence in handling duties, their reputation for honesty, and how “in touch” they are with ordinary people, among others. The goal was to determine which of these traits had the greatest influence on voters’ perceptions of trustworthiness.
By analyzing over 80,000 comparisons, the researchers found that competence and integrity had strong, predictable effects on trust. But more surprisingly, attributes related to authenticity—such as being “in touch with ordinary people”—were just as influential. The study also tested whether different voter groups, such as those with lower political trust or left-leaning voters, placed more emphasis on authenticity. Across all demographics and countries, authenticity mattered a great deal, especially for distrustful voters and those on the political left.
The Key Findings: Competence, Integrity, and Authenticity
The study's findings are clear: while competence and integrity remain vital for political trust, authenticity plays a similarly crucial role. Politicians who come across as “in touch with everyday life and ordinary people” were seen as more trustworthy, often matching the importance of being competent or honest.
The implication for Canadian politics right now - at a time when Canadians overwhelmingly have a scarcity mindset - is significant. Populist, “I’m on your side” and “I understand what you’re feeling” messaging and ability to connect with frustrated voters who feel left behind by the current political establishment is very appealing right now. It may even be essential to building trust, even if the person’s overall likeability isn’t very good.
The study also finds that voters also preferred politicians who directly answered questions rather than dodge them—another aspect of authenticity.
Poilievre’s sharp and direct communication style, even if it feels unorthodox and outside the mainstream, connects with people who are tired of the perceived evasiveness and political correctness often associated with the “political class.”
Trust in a Cynical Age: How Authenticity Resonates
One of the study’s central insights is that if we live in what many scholars have called a “cynical age” or an “age of distrust” where political trust is at historic lows across democracies, building trust is critical for politicians aiming to gain long-term support. The findings suggest that authenticity can be an antidote to the distrust that plagues modern politics.
Voters today are not looking for “superhuman” leaders. Instead, they want politicians who feel like “one of us”—people who understand the struggles of everyday life, who don’t seem polished, exceptional, or special, and who appear genuine in their intentions. (I wrote about this exact thing when I argued I didn’t think Justin Trudeau could win in this environment).
This explains why Ontario Premier Doug Ford has been able to withstand the same forces - “like inflationitis” - which has hurt incumbents in most other jurisdictions.
For Poilievre, this means that projecting authenticity, rather than simply chasing likability, might explain part of his appeal at the moment. His ability to speak plainly, criticize what many voters see as an out-of-touch government, and present himself as a defender of the “average Canadian” may resonate deeply with an electorate yearning for authenticity.
Last month, I asked Canadians which of two terms best describe each of the three main political party leaders.
Here are the results for Pierre Poilievre. Note, anything higher than 35% is noteworthy given that the sample includes all Canadian adults, not just those who have a preference or follow politics more closely.
Poilievre’s brand assets are strength, authenticity, and compassion. He’s seen as normal. His brand liabilities are perceptions he’s extreme and arrogant.
Consider the results of another survey I did earlier this year. We asked people whether they thought Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre would be better at several scenarios - like watching their children, making Thanksgiving dinner, putting up a shelf, or solving an escape room. The results are revealing and show us how Canadians see these leaders, in quite different ways.
Trudeau leads on hosting a party, is tied with Poilievre on more of the likeability scenarios - sitting next to on a plane, having a conversation at a pub - but is trails Poilievre by a significant margin on some of the competence scenarios - putting up a shelf, putting out a fire, or being in charge of the map for a road trip.
Implications for Canadian Political Campaigns
The implications of The Good Politician study along with some of the Abacus Data polling I’ve shared for political campaigns and public affairs are important, in my view.
In an era where media pundits and strategists often focus on a politician’s likability, this study reminds us that voters may care more about whether their leaders are competent, honest, and authentic. Being a jerk may not matter when Canadians are looking for solutions and “real” leaders. It may also explain how Donald Trump became President of the United States once and could win again in a few weeks.
The implication is that campaigns should focus on projecting these qualities rather than obsessing over crafting a likable image. Different moments require different types of leaders. I think Poilievre is connecting because he’s giving enough people what they want. There’s a lesson here for anyone managing a reputation of a person, organization, brand, or a sector.
Know what you’re audience is thinking and feeling.
Assess whether what you’re offering connects and aligns.
If it doesn’t adjust or find another way to connect.
For Poilievre, the road to victory in 2025 most likely lies in contrasting what people think Trudeau lacks and emphasizing what he has - perceptions of authenticity, competence, and integrity.
While his personal style may not appeal to everyone or even a few, if voters perceive him as competent, honest, and in touch with their everyday struggles, it may not matter whether people “like” him.