How big is the Conservative Party's voter universe?

Part 1 of my Series on the Canadian Political Parties Accessible Voter Pools

Two weeks ago, I started looking more closely at the accessible voter pools of Canada’s major political parties.

While much of the focus tends to fall on horserace polling, I think there is far more value in understanding the size, composition, and shifts in each party's accessible voter pool. It helps us better understand not just how parties are faring today, but where they have room to grow, what their limits might be in the future, and which voter segments might be in play during the next election.

In this first post of the series, I’m focusing on the Conservative Party of Canada.

The data comes from two surveys we conducted in August, with a total sample size of over 3,800 respondents. My goal is to map the accessible voter pool and subpools for the Conservatives and explore who these voters are, what motivates them, and how they differ from those who are inaccessible to the party.

As of today, 53% of Canadians say they are open to voting Conservative. For some context, if we estimate the total eligible voter population in Canada to be about 29 million people, that means over 15 million Canadians are open to the idea of voting Conservative in the next election.

To provide further context, here’s how the other major political parties stack up:

• 41% of Canadians are open to voting NDP.

• 40% are open to voting Liberal.

• 28% are open to voting Green Party.

• 20% are open to voting for the People’s Party.

• In Quebec, 50% are open to voting for the Bloc Québécois.

Looking at these numbers, it's clear that the Conservative Party currently has a broader base of potential support than its major rivals. But what's most interesting is how this accessible voter pool has changed over time.

Trends Over the Last Decade

Since the 2015 federal election, the Conservative Party’s accessible voter pool has seen fluctuations that align closely with key political events. Immediately after the 2015 election, which saw Justin Trudeau’s Liberals sweep into power, only 42% of Canadians said they were open to voting Conservative — the party’s lowest point in the past decade.