Here’s a reason why Poilievre and the Conservatives are leading by 25 points

Something not enough commentators about politics are talking about

Yesterday, the Liberal Party released new advertising targeting Pierre Poilievre. How much they are spending on those ads is unknown.

In my opinion, one of the most under‐reported political stories in Canada right now is just how much more visible Pierre Poilievre has become, especially compared to previous Conservative leaders—and how much Conservative spending has fuelled that recognition. If you look closely at the latest Abacus data, it’s clear that Poilievre is achieving something his two immediate predecessors never quite managed: near‐universal awareness among a key segment of the electorate, younger Canadians.

Let’s start with the money, because that’s often what drives name recognition in politics. According to the chart on non‐election year advertising spending, the Conservatives have been pouring vastly more resources into advertising than either the Liberals or the NDP. In 2023 alone, according the annual financial statements, the Conservatives spent roughly $8.5 million in ads—while the Liberals spent just $400,000 and the NDP essentially sat at zero - spending just $42,000.

That is not a trivial difference. And if you look back through the preceding years—2020, 2022, and so on—it’s equally obvious the Conservatives have been consistently out‐advertising the others, though never to the extent we’re seeing now. It’s as if, the minute Poilievre became leader, there was a concerted push to define him in the public mind.

That “push” is exactly what’s showing up in the impression numbers. The second chart looks at how Canadians—and younger Canadians in particular—viewed Erin O’Toole at the start of 2021, Andrew Scheer in 2019, and now Poilievre in November 2024. The difference in awareness is striking. For Poilievre, very few respondents are saying “don’t know.” People have an opinion of him, whether that’s positive or negative. When you compare that to the relatively large share of Canadians who shrugged and said “I’m not sure” about Scheer or O’Toole, you start to see just how successful the Conservative party’s advertising blitz has been at introducing Poilievre and staking out his identity—on their terms—before his opponents really got around to talking about him.

This is particularly evident among younger Canadians, where the Conservatives are now much farther ahead than they were under Scheer or O’Toole. It’s not just that more 18–29‐year‐olds have heard of Poilievre; it’s also that they’ve formed a clear impression of him. Even those who are negative toward him can’t say they don’t know who he is. That is an accomplishment in itself, and it’s driven, in large part, by a likely consistent barrage of YouTube ads, social media clips, and other online outreach. Anecdotally, I’ve had friends mention their kids see Poilievre ads before many YouTube videos. That’s no accident. When you spend millions more than everyone else combined—especially in the online space—it’s going to register.

What’s astonishing is how little attention this disparity in advertising spending has received in mainstream media coverage. We often hear about a leader’s rising or falling popularity, but we rarely connect it to the paid advertising that might be shaping (or preemptively shaping) those public perceptions. The Liberals and the NDP, for all their tactical maneuvering in Parliament, have essentially left the advertising field wide open. If the Conservatives are running laps around you in the marketing department and you’re barely getting out of the starting blocks, it’s hardly shocking if the conversation on social media—and increasingly among young people—centres on Poilievre and his messaging. This speaks to a broader trend: fewer and fewer Canadians rely on traditional news media for all their political information, which makes paid or algorithmically boosted content on digital platforms more potent than ever.

We shouldn’t underestimate the implications for the next election, either. Setting aside immediate controversies or news cycles, Poilievre has had the stage largely to himself when it comes to “telling his story” to voters, especially younger ones. That’s pivotal. Political branding 101 says if you can define your image early, you put your opponents on the defensive—they have to react to your narrative. By the time they do, you’ve already established a framework in voters’ minds. The abysmally low spending numbers from the Liberals and the NDP are basically an admission of surrender in the online advertising wars. And once an impression is set, especially among younger, highly online demographics, it can be tough to shake.

And we don’t yet know how much the Conservatives have spent in 2024.

But let’s circle back to the main takeaway: Conservative spending on advertising isn’t just high—it’s off the charts in comparison to their rivals. And that money has bought something extremely valuable: awareness.

Poilievre is better known and has a more favourable Impression than Scheer or O’Toole ever were. The data tells us that across demographic groups, fewer Canadians say, “I haven’t heard of him” or “I’m not sure.” That’s a remarkable achievement in a relatively short period with an audience that’s the last to pay attention to politics in between elections.

However, because we so rarely talk about the link between advertising spending and public opinion, it’s gone largely unnoticed in the day‐to‐day coverage of politics.

In essence, the Conservatives spent millions of dollars defining Pierre Poilievre for a full 15 months after he became leader, while his opponents spent next to nothing to reach those same audiences.

I suspect that happened again in 2024.

When I hear people say, “It seems like you either love him or hate him, but everybody knows him,” that isn’t happenstance. It’s a payoff from a concentrated investment in digital and social platforms at a time when mainstream news consumption is fragmented. While we fixate on poll numbers and personality clashes, we’re missing the bigger structural story: one party has been hammering home its leader’s message for over two years, while the others have largely opted out of that conversation. And if you’re the only one talking, it’s no surprise that people are listening to you—especially the younger, digital only generation that sees those YouTube ads every day.

All of this points to a real strategic lesson: if you let your opponents define themselves (and define you by your absence) without any real pushback, you risk ceding the entire conversation to them. Poilievre’s near‐universal awareness numbers underscore just how effective that approach can be.

And if the Liberals and the NDP continue to treat paid media on digital and traditional channels as afterthoughts—particularly when it comes to younger Canadians—there’s every reason to believe Poilievre’s lead with that demographic will grow. For a party that wants to rebuild its base and dominate the next election cycle, the Conservative strategy isn’t just about slick messaging. It’s also about playing in the medium where more and more Canadians now live their daily lives. And so far, it’s working.

When you have a such a fundraising advantage, you can use it to control the agenda.