Governing in the Age of Reassurance
What public opinion will ask of the new Carney government and what it means for public affairs
Mark Carney’s Liberal government may have won the 2025 election, but the road ahead will be anything but smooth. In fact, it might be among the most complex governing challenges any federal government has faced in a generation. Carney didn’t ride a wave of optimism or party enthusiasm into office. He won because he aligned—almost perfectly—with the emotional mood of the larger proportion of the electorate.
That mood has changed. In the last few years, Canadians were driven by a scarcity mindset: “Can I afford rent and groceries?” “Will I get the healthcare I need?” But that has shifted.
For the first four months of 2025 and the election campaign, was fought under the shadow of something deeper and more destabilizing: a growing precarity mindset. And Carney’s calm, competent, and serious tone met the moment better than any of his opponents.
Team Abacus Data has been tracking this shift in public consciousness for some time. But new polling conducted just days after the April 28 election confirms it. A majority of Canadians remain deeply uncertain—not just about their finances, but about the systems, institutions, and international relationships that underpin their lives. They want reassurance, not revolution. Stability, not swagger. They want a government that doesn’t just promise change but delivers confidence in the face of global chaos.
This, then, is the new governing context. Welcome to the Age of Reassurance.
And for public affairs professionals, this moment offers both risk and opportunity.
The Public Mood: Relief, Reassurance, and a Lingering Edge of Anxiety
Our post-election survey of 1,500 Canadians finds that the appetite for relief from the cost of living crisis remains strong. When asked which Liberal campaign promises people most want the new government to act on first, the top two are about affordability: cutting income taxes for the middle class and making the federal carbon tax reduction permanent by shifting the burden to big polluters.
In fact, 50% of Canadians selected income tax cuts among their top three priorities. This was followed by cancelling the consumer carbon tax (40%) and expanding access to dental care (36%)—all reminders that even as Canadians worry about the future, they’re still struggling with the present.
That tension—between the need for short-term help and long-term stability—is the essence of the precarity mindset. Canadians aren’t just reacting to high prices; they’re doubting the durability of the systems around them. They want policies that both cushion the impact and promise resilience.
And Carney’s coalition reflects this duality.
Among Liberal voters, we see especially strong support for promises that reflect stability: the new national dental care program, investments in mental health, and most notably, policies that clarify and stabilize the Canada-U.S. relationship. When asked which promises they most hope the Liberals will carry through on, Liberal voters overwhelmingly say: make dental care real, reinforce childcare, and provide certainty on immigration and economic security.
That’s important. Because while the immediate economic relief matters, the new Liberal coalition was forged in fear—not hope. And fear, while politically mobilizing, is volatile. It doesn’t guarantee loyalty. It seeks protection. And if that protection falters, the coalition could unravel quickly.
The Real Challenge: Precarity Across the Policy Landscape
What does precarity look like in public opinion? It’s not just inflation anxiety. It’s a broader feeling that core systems are at risk of failing.
Healthcare. Housing. Climate. The economy. Canada’s place in the world. AI and technological disruption. An aging population. All of these are now wrapped in a narrative of instability and fragility.
In our survey, nearly 70% of Canadians say they are concerned about climate change’s effects in the next five years. Even more are worried about whether housing will be affordable for their children. And a majority are unsure whether Canada can withstand further economic turbulence caused by Trump-era tariffs and U.S. political instability.
This is the governing terrain for Mark Carney. It demands policy that is both imaginative and credible. It requires communication that explains, reassures, and builds public trust. And it puts pressure on government to move quickly enough to show progress, without losing the discipline needed for long-term reforms – all in the confines of a minority government.
Add to this Canada’s regional tensions—particularly between the federal government and Alberta, led by Premier Danielle Smith—and the complexity only grows. Public opinion in Alberta, like in Quebec, is more suspicious of federal institutions, less supportive of carbon pricing, and more resistant to federal authority in areas like healthcare, energy, and taxation. Managing this relationship will require not just constitutional delicacy but real political courage.
Meanwhile, Quebec remains pivotal. The Liberals' gains there came largely because Carney’s centrism and technocratic brand resonated with risk-averse Quebecers far more focus on the impact of Trump than those in Ontario, the Prairies or British Columbia. But that support could easily be lost if Ottawa misreads Quebec’s cultural or jurisdictional sensitivities. For a government seeking national unity during uncertain times, Quebec is a linchpin, not a backstop.
What This Means for Public Affairs Professionals
So, what does this all mean for those of us in public affairs, advocacy, and government relations?
First, recognize that the emotional frame of the electorate has changed. Precarity is now the dominant public mindset—and policy proposals that don’t speak to it may fall flat. Canadians are looking for security. They want proposals that demonstrate control over chaos. So, if you’re advocating for a new program, regulation, or investment, you need to answer the implicit question: “Will this make life feel more stable?”
Second, align your narrative with reassurance. That means striking the right tone—competence over charisma, clarity over confrontation. There’s less appetite for ideological brinkmanship, and more interest in pragmatism. This Liberal government was elected to manage uncertainty, not to excite people. Frame your priorities as helpful to that project.
Third, understand the coalition you're engaging with. The 2025 Liberal victory was not a sweeping mandate; it was a patchwork of motivated segments—older voters seeking protection, suburban families anxious about housing and childcare, younger Canadians worried about climate and job security. Each segment brought different expectations to the table. And notably, younger voters—especially Millennials and Gen Z—still feel disconnected from the Liberals. Many abandoned the party for the Conservatives this time, not because they were aligned ideologically, but because they didn’t feel seen.
Re-engaging those voters will be part of the government’s longer-term challenge. And proposals that show ambition for the future—particularly around climate, tech, and affordability—will be essential to building credibility with them.
Fourth, embrace public opinion research. In a fragmented political environment, with a volatile electorate, assumptions are dangerous. We can no longer treat “the public” as a single audience. The precarity mindset affects people differently—by age, gender, region, and income. Understanding these distinctions, and tracking how public expectations evolve, is crucial for effective advocacy.
This is especially important in the early days of the Carney government. Public affairs professionals have a window to help shape the agenda. But doing so effectively will require not just relationships in government, but insight into what the public is demanding from that government.
The Policy Window is Open—But Not for Long
New governments are often defined by what they accomplish early. And our data is clear: Canadians want action now.
Income tax cuts. Dental care. Housing construction. Stabilizing the relationship with the United States. These are not just abstract policy areas—they are the cornerstones of public reassurance. They’re proof points that the government understands the stakes and is prepared to act.
But they also represent a narrowing window. If Canadians don’t see evidence of progress—if the anxiety doesn’t start to ease—the public mood could sour quickly. And in a country where the trust reservoir is already shallow, disappointment is a powerful political force.
Public affairs strategies that help government move faster, communicate better, and solve real problems will be most welcome in this environment. But proposals that feel tangential, overly complex, or disconnected from people’s lived experience? They’ll be ignored—or worse, resented.
The Age of Reassurance is a time when government and advocacy must align around the same emotional north star: lowering the temperature, strengthening the foundation, and offering a credible path forward.
In Carney’s Own Words: His Stated Priorities
The themes Carney struck in his first post-election press conference only underscore the governing philosophy that lies ahead. His agenda reflects both the public’s demand for immediate relief and the deeper need for systemic reassurance. He promised to swiftly cut income taxes for the middle class and expand the federal dental care program to cover eight million Canadians—two popular pledges that address affordability in the short term. But Carney also framed his mission in grander, more structural terms: building Canadian economic resilience, reducing reliance on external partners like the U.S., and eliminating internal trade barriers. “We can give ourselves more than the Americans can take away,” he said, vowing to pursue nation-building investments, drive productivity, and unify the economy under a stronger internal market. In navigating his first high-stakes meeting with President Trump, Carney promised calm but firm diplomacy—prepared, pragmatic, and unhurried. And while he ruled out a formal governing pact with the NDP, his insistence on cross-partisan collaboration signals a leadership style designed to lower the temperature. In short, Carney is casting himself as a steward of national stability in unstable times—an approach that aligns squarely with what Canadians told us they want.
Final Thoughts: Advocacy in an Age of Precarity
There’s a temptation after any election to treat the result as a reset—a fresh page for bold ideas and policy ambition. But that’s not what Canadians asked for this time.
They asked for safety. For clarity. For a government that can weather the storms.
Mark Carney’s government was elected to be the grown-up in the room. To protect against disruption—not fuel it. That changes the game for everyone in the advocacy space.
It means public affairs must be more grounded, more data-driven, and more attuned to emotion. It means making the case not just on merits, but on how proposals contribute to systemic stability. It means helping government do the hard work of governing in a time when nothing feels certain.
Because in this age of precarity, the most powerful message we can send is: we’ve got this.