Going for Four in a Row: The Liberal Party's Voter Universe
Part 3 of my series looking at the voter universes of the main federal political parties in Canada
So much attention is paid to the horserace, even when we are likely at least a year or more from the next federal election. I think it's far more valuable to understand how a party might grow or shrink by focusing on its accessible pool of voters.
This is the third installment of my in-depth look at the voter universes for Canada's main political parties, in which I delve into the accessible voter pool of the Liberal Party of Canada.
Today, Liberal Party members and activists are meeting in Ottawa at the party’s policy convention. I’ve been asked by several journalists to give my perspective on the prospects for the party and Prime Minister Trudeau as they work towards seeking a fourth mandate from Canadians.
In this post, using polling data and trends since 2015, I’ll examine the party's vote share, voter accessibility, regional and demographic support, and the challenges and opportunities it faces in the political landscape.
I went into Abacus Data's poll archive and looked at our most recent national survey conducted in the last few days to gather the evidence and data for this post.
Here's what I found:
Since the last federal election, the Liberal Party’s vote share among committed voters has been stuck in the high 20s to low 30s. It feels like it’s hit a ceiling.
In 2021, the party received 33% of the vote, so its average level of support over the last 18 months has been somewhat lower than the vote in received in the last election.
Despite getting fewer votes than the Conservatives in the last two elections, the Liberals have been able to win significantly more seats. This vote efficiency is a strength of the party and one that is likely to continue into the next election.
So, the main questions for the Liberals are: can you hold together the minority coalition of voters and is another majority possible?
The answer lies in understanding the composition of the Liberal voter universe.
Today, 46% of Canadians would consider voting Liberal, which is slightly lower than the Conservatives (48%) and slightly larger than the NDP (44%). When the Liberals were first elected in 2015, 70% of Canadians said they would consider voting for the party. One year into its mandate that dropped to a still impressive 63%. But over the past few years, that accessible voter pool has dropped below 50% and today, the Liberal voter pool has shrunk by about a third.
Even if we agree that the 70% accessible voter pool in November 2015 is artificially high, there’s no doubt that far fewer Canadians today are open to voting Liberal than have been over the past seven and half years.
If we look at the Liberal voter universe overall today, 25% are current Liberal supporters, 21% are accessible (open to voting Liberal but not currently supporting the party), and 54% are inaccessible to the Liberals. I'll focus on these three groups for the rest of this post.
Regional and Demographic Subgroups:
The Liberal Party has the largest accessible voter pools in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia.
In the Prairies, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan, support is quite low and while there are some who say they are open to voting Liberal, converting those accessible voters is likely more difficult given the historical challenges the Liberal brand has in those provinces.
But the key point is that in every part of the country, there is still room for the Liberals to grow.
The party has a larger pool of potential support among women than men (48% to 45%) and generally more support and a larger accessible pool among younger voters. The most difficult demographic for the Liberals right now appears to be men over the age of 45. Only 38% say they are open to voting Liberal.
Ideological Identity:
Among current Liberal supporters, 43% identify on the left side of the political spectrum, 39% in the center, and 15% on the right. Accessible voters are slightly more centrist, with 47% in the middle but still a sizeable portion on the left (41%). There doesn’t appear to be much opportunity for the Liberals in going after more conservative-oriented Canadians.
Current and Past Vote:
91% of current Liberal supporters voted Liberal in 2021. 4% voted Conservative and 4% split their votes between the NDP and other parties. Among Liberal accessible voters, 28% voted Liberal in 2021, 18% voted Conservative, but the largest group, 34%, voted NDP. This suggests a clear opportunity to engage these NDP voters, especially if the prospect of a Conservative government after the election becomes wildly expected.
When asked how they would vote today if an election were held, among accessible Liberals, 35% would vote NDP, 19% Conservative, and 13% for other parties. 1 in 3 say they are undecided.
Overlap with Other Parties:
Among current Liberals supporters, 49% are open to voting NDP, 27% for the Greens, 23% for the Conservatives, and 14% for the People’s Party. Among accessible Liberals supporters, 70% are also open to voting NDP, 53% for the Greens, and 48% for the Conservatives. This shows just how much overlap there is between Liberal and NDP voter universes.