Final Alberta Poll: UCP poised to win, but it's close!
A quick review of our latest survey plus some exclusive data to paid subscribers
For the entire Alberta election, I’ll be writing and sharing data exclusive to paid subscribers of this newsletter. For those who aren’t subscribers, you’ll be able to read some of my analysis, but to get everything, including far more data, please subscribe for just $10/month. That helps pay for the data I use in these analyses.
Wow, we're at the edge of our seats here as we analyze the final poll of Alberta's upcoming election. Remember back in December, when our survey indicated that Danielle Smith and the UCP might face challenges due to the "Reluctant UCPers"? That sure was a turning point in our understanding of Alberta's political landscape.
Today, I released Abacus Data’s final poll of the 2023 Alberta election.
I'm going to give you my take on why the UCP stands a good chance to win the election tomorrow, explore the journey we took to arrive here, and dive into why the NDP might just miss out on the win, despite potentially gaining close to a majority vote.
It's a nail-biter, folks!
Our final forecast is reading UCP at 49% and NDP at 48% (almost as close as it can get) but it appears the UCP are set for a win tomorrow.
Here's how we arrived at this forecast. We surveyed 1,200 eligible voters in Alberta from May 26th to May 28th, 2023, and the data shows Danielle Smith and the UCP are in a solid position to take home the win. Our estimation is the UCP will win about 49% of the vote, the NDP around 48%, and the rest will be distributed amongst other parties.
The breakdown is quite interesting:
27% of eligible voters have already voted, with 50% voting for UCP and 47% for NDP.
Older voters and men show more preference for the UCP, while the younger demographic and women lean towards the NDP.
NDP leads in Edmonton, but UCP is ahead in other areas, including Calgary.
Education level also seems to play a role, with high school graduates and those with college degrees or some university education favoring UCP, while those with university degrees leaning towards NDP.
Non-racialized Albertans lean UCP while racialized Albertans strongly favour the NDP.
Now, what led us to conclude that the UCP has a winning edge? Mainly, their lead in Calgary and among older voters played a huge role.
Exploring the 'why' behind these results, we found that 35% of voters believe the province is on the right track, a larger proportion than the national average (31%).
Both Smith and Notley hold fairly similar public impressions, with 42% predicting Smith will be premier after the election. Both campaigns framed this election in terms of risk, but Albertans are divided on who they think is riskier or safer - it's almost a 50-50 split.
When it comes to who can manage the economy better, UCP has a clear lead, while NDP is thought to be the better choice for healthcare. On the topic of values, UCP also leads by a few points.
Interestingly, without Danielle Smith as UCP's leader, the election could have been a landslide, with 44% saying they'd vote for UCP, a significant lead over the NDP's 28%.
We've been following the "Reluctant UCPers" throughout this journey, who voted UCP in 2019 but were undecided or voting for another party now. The size of this group has decreased to 10% of the electorate, suggesting the UCP campaign's success in regaining its past supporters and the failure of the NDP to convert enough to win.
So, what's the upshot here?
The NDP had a tough job to win over new voters - voters who have never in their life voted NDP and probably thought they never would. And although they did convince many, it seems like it may not be enough for a win.
Danielle Smith, who started off with weaker favorables than Rachel Notley, has seemingly managed to consolidate UCP support over time. Despite some turbulence and reluctance from past UCP voters, Smith and her team leveraged the UCP's natural advantage in Alberta, focusing on economic management and low taxes as well as some fear about the NDP to secure their position.
In contrast, the NDP couldn't quite convince enough Albertans that Smith and UCP were too risky. In a place like Alberta, dethroning an incumbent is a tricky business that requires just the right conditions, and it seems they've fallen short this time.
Regardless of whether the final results reflect our forecast (and hey, we might be in for a surprise), there will be plenty of food for thought in the aftermath of this election. We might be looking at a solid two-party system in Alberta moving forward, but competition could vary greatly depending on numerous factors.
Can't wait to unpack the lessons from this political showdown in the coming weeks!
For paid subscribers of this newsletter, you can access the full data tables from this survey below.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,200 Alberta adults eligible to vote from May 26 to 28, 2023.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/