Digging into Mark Carney's Appeal
Who likes the frontrunner to be the next Prime Minister?
Two weeks ago, I surveyed 3,000 Canadian adults about their impressions of various political figures. Since the start of the Liberal leadership election, I’ve been tracking overall impressions of Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Karina Gould. By all accounts, Carney is the favourite to win the election and become Liberal leader and Prime Minister in early March.
At first glance, Carney’s numbers suggest a moderate but not overwhelming level of recognition or enthusiasm among Canadians overall. Digging into the data by region, demographic profile, and political affiliation, however, paints a more nuanced picture—one that may foreshadow how he could fare if he indeed becomes the next leader of the Liberal Party and what his opponents will need to do to change impressions.
Overall Impression: Carney’s top‐line numbers show that 35% of Canadians have a “very positive” or “mostly positive” impression of him. Another 26% report feeling “neutral,” 20% lean “mostly” or “very” negative, and a not‐insignificant 19% say they simply don’t know enough to have an opinion. His net score is +15 - a very solid number considering that currently Pierre Poilievre is -3, Jagmeet Singh is -11 and Justin Trudeau is -35.
That nearly one in five remain uncertainsuggests that Carney, for all his international credentials, is not yet a household name coast to coast. For a prospective leadership candidate, that may be both a challenge and an opportunity—there is room for him to define himself before his opponents do but also space for his opponents to define him.
Regional Variations Regionally, Carney performs best in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, where around 40% give him a positive rating. Ontario follows closely at 36%, while British Columbia sits at 34%. Support then tapers off on the Prairies, with Alberta at 22% and Saskatchewan/Manitoba at just 17%.