Canadians Are Tuning In: Why The Leaders' Debates Could Tip the Race
New Abacus Data polling offers insight into what people think about who will perform better in these debates.
Two weeks into Canada’s general election campaign, one thing is abundantly clear: Canadians are paying attention.
Our latest national survey at Abacus Data puts the Liberals and the Conservatives tied at 39% each, with the remaining votes split among the NDP, the Bloc Québécois, and other parties. While the tight race at the top is intriguing, what’s even more remarkable is the level of engagement we’re seeing. Almost 70% of Canadians tell us they are “very interested” in this election—about 20 points higher than what our surveys showed during the 2021 campaign. This marks a significant jump in public attention and suggests that, in this environment, each new development in the campaign could resonate more powerfully than it might have in the past. In other words, all eyes are on these campaigns—and the parties know it.
When more voters are engaged, campaigns matter more. Voters, keen to figure out which leader they trust to steer Canada in the right direction, are likely to scrutinize every policy announcement, gaffe, and debate exchange. That heightened focus cuts both ways: on the one hand, it creates real opportunities for leaders to move public opinion; on the other, it raises the stakes for even small missteps. This is especially noteworthy for an election that features a new political leader in Mark Carney up against three more well know leaders in Poilievre, Singh, and Blanchet. Add in the presence of Donald Trump still in the White House south of the border, and the landscape for Canada’s election becomes even more layered and complex.
Our data continues to underscore how close this race is—yet the underlying numbers still tilt slightly in favour of the Liberals. While Carney and Poilievre share the same headline poll figure of 39%, the Liberals hold some advantages when we dive deeper. One of those advantages, as our surveys indicate, is Mark Carney’s personal appeal among Canadians. His net favourable rating stands at +15, which is relatively high for a national leader. Typically, Canadians have more polarized views of party leaders, making Carney’s positive standing a notable asset for the Liberals in a tight race. Most Canadians see him as competent, stable, and well-suited to navigate tricky economic waters, likely due to his high-profile roles in central banking during previously challenging moments.
However, there’s a flip side to the Carney story: for many voters, particularly those who don’t follow politics closely outside of election periods, the impression of him is based more on broad perceptions of competence and professionalism than detailed knowledge of his policy positions or his personality. That can be both an opportunity and a vulnerability.
Voters who assume Carney is calm, rational, and experienced may be projecting these qualities without having seen him tested as a political leader in a live, competitive environment. This is why the upcoming leaders’ debates—scheduled for April 16 in French and April 17 in English—could be pivotal moments for him.
Historically, Canadian leaders’ debates have been appointment viewing for only the most politically engaged. In some elections political engagement is higher and in others much lower.
This time, with nearly 70% of Canadians telling us they’re very interested in the election, we expect more people than usual to tune in—or at least pay close attention to the post-debate coverage. That heightened scrutiny could have an outsized impact on how voters perceive the leaders. Typically, debates can either reinforce impressions voters already hold or flip those impressions on their head. In both scenarios, it’s fair to say “debates matter,” even if they don’t always show up in the topline numbers the day after. If large segments of Canadians come away feeling that their expectations were met or exceeded, those leaders often solidify their base of support. If, on the other hand, leaders fail to meet the moment, the shift can be swift and sometimes unforgiving.
Our latest numbers not released yet suggest a potentially larger-than-usual audience for the debates.