Are Poilievre and the Conservatives headed towards a "loveless landslide"?
What Canadian Conservatives should learn from the UK Labour Party's recent victory and rapid drop in popularity
There’s always value in watching what’s going on in other countries to learn something about what is happening in your own.
As someone fascinated by British politics, I’ve been closely watching the political developments in the United Kingdom over the past year, particularly Labour’s 2024 electoral victory.
In a recent analysis in the New Statesman magazine, Ben Walker described Keir Starmer’s electoral success as a “loveless landslide built on quicksand”—a victory not born of enthusiastic support for Labour’s vision but rather of frustration and disillusionment with the previous UK Conservative government. It’s a clear example of what can happen when a victory rests more on opposition to the status quo than on the appeal of a compelling alternative vision. This dynamic got me thinking about what may happen in Canada if the Conservative Party wins the next federal election with a comparably large landscape (albeit with a higher vote share).
As it stands, the Conservatives are polling well. Much of their support stems from dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau’s government and the Prime Minister himself. I’ve described it as “the glue holding together the new Conservative coalition.”
There’s a sense of exhaustion with Trudeau’s leadership, and for many voters, Pierre Poilievre represents change and a break from the status quo.
However, I believe that this puts the Conservatives in a precarious position—one that echoes what Labour has experienced in the UK: A “loveless landslide,” built on disillusionment and a negative coalition united around opposition to Trudeau. This situation could create future challenges for Poilievre’s government if he doesn’t solidify a broader vision for Canada that goes beyond simply not being Justin Trudeau.
A Coalition Built on Discontent
Right now, one of the Conservative Party’s key strengths is that it has pulled together a coalition of voters who are united by their rejection of Justin Trudeau. Our polling shows its one of the things every current Conservative Party supporter agrees on - they have a negative impression of Justin Trudeau and want a change in leadership.
Polling data shows a significant amount of antipathy toward Trudeau, particularly among men, who see his leadership as weak, performative, and disconnected from their economic realities. For many, their support for the Conservatives is less about excitement for Poilievre or his policies (which haven’t really been detailed yet) and more about a desire for change at the top and his focus on those voters’ priorities.
But as the UK experience illustrates, relying on dissatisfaction alone can be risky. Labour’s victory, while decisive in terms of its majority in the House of Commons, has left the party struggling to maintain momentum and enthusiasm. Starmer’s government has yet to inspire widespread passion for Labour’s policies, and questions linger about how sustainable their support is over the long term. Polling in the UK suggests that the Starmer government has quickly become almost as unpopular as the government it replaced - in less than six months. That’s a very short honeymoon.
The risk for Poilievre and the Conservatives is that they could find themselves in a similar situation if they win in 2025 without having clearly articulated what they stand for beyond being the anti-Trudeau party.
Defining a Vision for Canada
To avoid a “loveless” win, I think the Conservatives will need to do more than capitalize on the electorate’s desire for change. They need to spend time socializing the public to their vision for Canada—both economically and socially.