Alberta Election: A deeper dive into the regional vote dynamics

An exclusive for paid subscribers

For the entire Alberta election, I’ll be writing and sharing data exclusive to paid subscribers of this newsletter. For those who aren’t subscribers, you’ll be able to read some of my analysis, but to get everything, including far more data, please subscribe for just $10/month. That helps pay for the data I use in these analyses.

Earlier today, I released results from a new survey that found the Alberta NDP surging into the lead over the UCP.

Some have asked me to dig a bit deeper into the results, especially breaking out the regional dynamics a bit more.

Using the reported FSAs (first three digits of our postal code), I grouped respondents into six groups:

1. Calgary

2. Edmonton

3. Rural (FSAs with a 0 in the middle)

4. Surrounding communities to Edmonton and Calgary (think Leduc or Airdrie)

5. Small cities like Lethbridge, Red Deer, Grande Prairie and Medicine Hat

6. Every other community that’s left

Note, the sample sizes for most of these subregions is quite small so please be cautious making inferences about the results, but I think the overall patterns align with what many who are closely observing the election feel is happening.

Here’s what we see: