Advantage Liberal: The electoral dynamics of federal election as week two comes to an end

A look at voter shifts and the paths for victory for the Liberals and Conservatives

As we come to the end of the second week of this national campaign, we find ourselves looking at an electoral picture that might surprise some and confirm the suspicions of others. According to our latest polling, Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party remain locked in a tight contest with the Conservatives, each sitting at around 39 percent support. Although this statistical tie suggests a horse race, there are good reasons to believe that the Liberals hold a clear advantage—an advantage built upon strong voter retention, Conservative slips, and a significant collapse in New Democratic Party (NDP) support.

Let us start with a look at the overall numbers. Our most recent poll, which wrapped up last Friday, found that the Liberals and Conservatives are essentially neck and neck at 39 percent apiece. In just two months, Carney’s team has clawed back from a 20-point deficit by appealing to their traditional voter base, converting close to a third of the NDP’s previous support base, and by capitalizing on some notable Conservative vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s tenure as President south of the border seems to have galvanized both Liberal loyalists and moderate voters who view the Liberals as a safer or more predictable choice.

Three main factors underpin the Liberals’ current advantage.