A Summer of Steady Nerves: Political opinions hold as we wait for a trade deal with the U.S.
Some thoughts on the Abacus Data tracking poll on Canadian politics
As the summer deepens and Canadians tune out a little, our latest survey shows public opinion hasn’t shifted much, despite a fresh jolt from Washington. From July 10 to 15, we surveyed 1,915 Canadians shortly after the federal government adjusted its approach to the Digital Services Tax to keep negotiations with the Trump administration going.
Where in Canadian political opinion today? Steady.
Approval for the Carney government holds at 52%. Vote intention is essentially unchanged: 43% would vote Liberal, 40% Conservative. The desire for change remains split: 31% want change and see a good alternative, while 36% think the Liberals deserve re-election, the highest that number has been in over two years.
The mood, however, isn’t cheerful. Only 36% think the country is headed in the right direction. Just 11% feel that way about the United States. In open-ended responses, “Tariff” and “Trump” dominated what’s on people’s minds, underscoring just how much American politics is shaping Canadian anxiety right now.
Yet Canadians appear to be distinguishing between external threats and domestic leadership. Carney remains a relatively well-liked figure (net +21 favourability), and while Poilievre’s support is solid on economic issues, his broader appeal remains limited (net -4).
On key issues, the Conservatives have the edge on affordability and the economy. But when it comes to managing Trump and geopolitical instability, Canadians who rate this as a top issue overwhelmingly prefer the Liberals, by nearly 40 points.
In short, Trump’s return hasn’t triggered a political reckoning here. Not yet. Canadians are watching warily, hoping the government can hold the line through the summer. The real test comes this fall, when a trade deal needs to be done and the stakes get even higher.
You can review the full poll here: