2021 vs. 2025: Comparing public opinion at the start of both campaigns
What the initial Abacus Data surveys in both years tell us about how this year's election is starting.
As we kick off the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign, it’s instructive to look back at where we stood at the start of the 2021 race. Although that campaign feels like it only just wrapped up, so much has changed in four years—both in the broader national mood and in the political landscape itself.
My company Abacus Data recently fielded our first major poll of the new campaign, and when we place these findings side by side with our initial 2021 election poll, some key differences immediately jump out. In this post, I’ll walk you through the highlights and wrap up with a sense of how 2025 is already shaping up to be a very different kind of contest.
Higher Overall Interest in the Campaign
Let’s start with the level of public engagement. In our first chart, we asked Canadians how interested they were in the election in its earliest days. Back in 2021, our poll at the same juncture found that just over half—53%—reported being very interested in the election. This year, the number is substantially higher at 72%. That’s a notable jump, indicating that more people will be interested at the start of the campaign this year.
Why the surge in interest? Part of it might be a direct response to the political climate both here and abroad. In 2021, the pandemic still loomed large and may have siphoned off people’s capacity to focus on campaign minutiae and the campaign lacked a clear purpose. Now, with a slew of pressing issues from affordability to Trump, Canadians appear more eager to see how each party plans to navigate these choppy waters. At the same time, some of the cynicism that hung over the snap election call in 2021—when many Canadians felt an election was premature—may have given way to a feeling that this campaign is overdue. Whatever the reason, higher engagement spells a dynamic political environment right out of the gate.
A Worse National Mood
Second, we look at country’s overall outlook. We asked Canadians if they feel the country is headed in the right direction or if things are on the wrong track. In 2021, about 42% felt Canada was headed in the right direction at the start of the campaign. This time, the mood is decidedly worse with only 30% thinking the country is headed in the right direction. We see the same difference on the direction of the world or the USA.
Substantially Higher Desire for Change
Linked closely to mood is the desire for change. In 2021, that desire—measured as the percentage of Canadians who felt it was definitely time to replace the Trudeau government was 46%. This year’s results indicate that the figure is substantially higher at 57%. In contrast, those thinking the Liberals definitely deserve to be re-elected is also higher (16% vs. 21%).