What are Canadians looking for in their next Prime Minister?
This rather unconventional survey question may offer some clues.
In our latest Abacus Data poll, (which continues to show a 20-point Conservative Party lead), we embarked on a rather unconventional exploration of Canadian political leadership—inspired by an interesting survey conducted overseas by UK pollster JL Partners.
Instead of the usual questions about policies or political alignment, we asked Canadians to consider a series of more personable and scenario-based queries: Who would be better at several scenarios - ones designed to capture the multi-dimensions of leadership.
These questions, while lighthearted on the surface, I think uncover real insights about public perception towards these two leaders. They are a survey equivalent of using projection techniques in focus groups.
The findings are as intriguing as the questions themselves. Notably, Canadians do not blindly favour the leader they typically support across all scenarios, indicating a nuanced view of the leadership qualities of Trudeau and Poilievre.
Trudeau the Party Host, Poilievre the Handler
In our survey, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reigns as the premier party host, which might not come as a surprise given his charismatic and sociable public persona. However, in scenarios that required quick thinking and practical skills—like solving an escape room, putting out a kitchen fire, or managing a road trip as the navigator—Pierre Poilievre has the advantage. These tasks, which we might categorize under crisis management and competence, appear to align more with public perceptions of Poilievre’s strengths.
Among "Liberal switchers"—those who supported the Liberals in the 2021 election but are now leaning towards other parties or remain undecided—Trudeau still holds sway in more personal and trust-oriented contexts, such as being a companion on a flight or supervising children. However, Poilievre shows significant leads in scenarios demanding a back-to-basics, hands-on approach.
Generational Shifts in Political Perceptions
What stood out most prominently was the response from younger voters - Gen Z and Millennials. Except for scenarios directly tied to personality and trust, like hosting a party or caring for children, Poilievre is viewed more favorably in nearly every other aspect. This indicates a significant shift, considering Trudeau’s historical appeal to these demographics. The fact that Poilievre is seen as competitive even in personality-driven contexts points to a possibly eroding stronghold of Trudeau among younger Canadians.
Predictive Insights on Voting Behavior
Our correlation analysis between these scenario responses and voting intentions reveals which situations are more likely to influence electoral decisions.
For Conservative-leaning voters, scenarios like managing a crisis (symbolized by putting out a kitchen fire) or demonstrating leadership and focus (being in charge of a map on a road trip) are crucial predictors. For Liberals, the ability to handle spontaneous challenges like solving an escape room or managing a crisis effectively also plays a significant role.
These findings suggest that Canadians might welcome Trudeau as the life of the party, but in times of need or practical challenges, Poilievre is seen as the go-to leader.
Competence vs. Relatability: What Matters to Canadians Now?
Our survey illuminates the current landscape of leadership qualities that Canadians value amid ongoing national challenges like affordability issues and a pervasive sense of crisis. The preference for Poilievre in practical and crisis-management scenarios reflects a desire for leaders who can act decisively and address problems head-on—qualities that some might feel Trudeau currently lacks.
Conversely, the areas where Trudeau remains strong suggest that personal trust and relatability still play significant roles in political leadership. The competitive edge Trudeau holds in these areas also indicates potential vulnerabilities for Poilievre, who may need to bolster his image as a relatable and trustworthy figure.
If people believe Canada is on fire, then it's clear they are more likely to look to Poilievre as the solution.
If on the other hand, they are looking for someone they feel comfortable near, someone who might bring joy to their life, there’s still affinity for Trudeau in this way.
Think Poilievre as fixed-in-chief and Trudeau as comforter-in-chief. Different styles. Different purposes, all dependent on the mood and context of the individual’s perspective.
Looking Forward
As we approach the next federal election, the dichotomy between competence and personal trust will likely become central themes.
Our survey suggests that while Canadians respect Trudeau’s charisma and ability to connect, there’s a growing appreciation for Poilievre’s pragmatic and efficient approach to leadership. This dynamic sets the stage for a compelling electoral battle, focusing on what Canadians deem most crucial in their leaders during these turbulent times.
This data not only adds a layer of depth to our understanding of political figures but also invites us to reflect on what leadership truly means in today’s Canada. As always, we will continue to monitor these trends and provide insights that help demystify the complex landscape of Canadian politics.
Pragmatic and control of leadership..?
Having observed the leadership styles of PMs from Pearson to present Poilievre appears as the opportunist without substance.